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Restaurant sales to moderate in 2012
By Chris Elliott
December 20, 2011
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Coming in 2012!
CRFA’s new RESTAURANT INDUSTRY FORECAST 2012 – 2016 and other research reports will be FREE OF CHARGE and available exclusively to CRFA members. Visit www.restaurantcentral.ca in the New Year and download your free copy. |
Canada’s economy may have expanded by a healthy 3.5% in the third quarter of 2011, but its outlook for 2012 will be muted by economic uncertainty in the United States and Europe. The latest forecast by TD Economics calls for Canada’s economy to grow by 1.9% in 2012 compared to a 2.2% expansion in 2011.
CRFA’s forecast
Given the outlook for a slower economy and modest disposable income growth, CRFA is forecasting a moderation in foodservice sales for 2012. Total commercial sales are predicted to expand by 2.9% to $51.8 billion, following a 3.6% increase in 2011. All segments will post slower foodservice sales growth as consumers rein in discretionary spending. Adjusted for menu inflation of 2.5%, real sales will grow by 0.4%.
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Assuming a 3.7% increase in non-commercial foodservice sales in 2012, total foodservice sales will grow to a record $65.0 billion.
Retail gets a bigger piece of the pie
As consumers tighten their purse strings, some trading down to retail food stores1 will occur. Retail food store sales are forecast to climb 4.2% to $112.6 billion – which means the foodservice share of the total food dollar will slip to 36.6% in 2012 from 36.9% in 2011.
Uncertain times
Given the current degree of uncertainty, foodservice sales could post better-than-expected growth if there is a big improvement in the U.S. economy. However, if the sovereign debt crisis in Europe spreads to other countries, or the American economy remains in the doldrums, we could see weaker foodservice sales growth in 2012. |
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